The hottest robot boom will trigger the global une

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Will the robot boom trigger a global unemployment crisis

a book called "the age of robots" recently won the McKinsey Award for best business book. It is disturbing that the subtitle of this book, the British version is the threat of mass unemployment, and the American version is a future of unemployment. The main point of the book is that from manufacturing to professional services, more and more people are worried that automation will have a negative impact on employment

this is not a new conclusion. From the well-known scientist Stephen Hawking, the founder of Microsoft, Bill Gates, to Tesla and Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX space exploration technology company, they have all mentioned that intelligent robots may replace or even rule human beings. Some American Hollywood films and TV works such as star wars even tell about the attack of robots on humans

in reality, robots are far less intelligent. At present, robots are still generally running under the program set by human beings, and what they can do is relatively simple. However, the industry generally believes that with the continuous development of information technology and the improvement of computing performance, robots will be able to undertake more work to help people extend their capabilities

because of this, robots may replace some people's daily work, which has aroused Martin Ford's concern. With the collapse of manufacturing industry and the dilution of demographic dividends, business owners are more inclined to use robots instead of artificial new production mode

what is impressive is that Hon Hai Chairman Terry Gou proposed the million robot plan in 2011. He had envisioned using 1million robots on Foxconn's production line in 2014. Although there is still a gap in the final goal, it has become a reality for the manufacturing industry that robots replace humans in some links

in the corresponding consumer market, service robots, especially those related to smart home, Shandong Star high-tech products are high-tech products that integrate machine, electricity, hydraulics and soft control, and the single function equipment has gradually matured. In this year's double 11 Shopping Festival, a floor sweeping robot entered the top ten in the sales of household appliances, even surpassing popular electronic products such as Xiaomi and Skyworth TV. Maybe one day, human beings are not just working, But the whole life is full of small high-rise buildings) to 60kg (the seismic fortification intensity is 8 degrees. All kinds of robots.

however, in the development of half a century, the current number of robots in the world is less than 2million. This is very small for the scale of any industry. Therefore, people in the industry also began to reflect on whether the speculation about the development and impact of the robot industry should be reduced?

enjoy policy dividends in the world

The global industrial system began to change. Many types of robots have been introduced into the production and manufacturing links of automobile, electronics, metal, rubber and other industries. People believe that robot is one of the greatest technological inventions of the 20th century. Especially after the 2008 financial crisis, the robot industry grew against the trend. Relevant data show that its global growth rate is about 30% on average, which is higher in the range of 50% - 60% in China

Arturo Baroncelli, President of the international robotics Union, said after conducting a global market survey that the sales of industrial robots reached 230000 last year in 2014, and there will be a 15% increase in 2015, and this growth trend will remain until 2018. The prediction of service robots is that they will exceed 15million in the next three years, with sales of more than 20billion

behind the high growth rate is actually the enthusiasm of governments and enterprises for intelligent manufacturing

Japan is in a leading position in robot production, R & D and use. In order to solve the problems of labor shortage and population aging, the development of robots has attracted much attention. In 2015, the Japanese government adopted a new robot strategy and decided to focus on the development of the robot industry in the next five years. In order to realize this strategy, the Japanese government will support it in finance, taxation, education and law

as the first country to invent robots in the world, the United States has long had the problem of emphasizing theory and neglecting application. However, since the late 1970s, the U.S. government began to lift restrictions on the application of industrial robots, and then began to work in the 1980s. The Obama administration launched the advanced manufacturing partnership program as early as 2011, with an investment of $2.8 billion to boost the U.S. manufacturing industry through the development of industrial robots

the European Union invested heavily in robot technology research and development in the seventh framework plan and horizon 2020 project, and launched SPARC, a civil robot research and development plan, in 2014. Moreover, European countries have also launched corresponding robot development strategies. Driven by industry 4.0, Germany will invest more than 50% in corresponding solutions in the next five years; The UK released the first official robot strategy RAS (Robotics and automation system) 2020, with us $257million to be used for this; The French robot development plan aims to become one of the top five robots in the world by 2020

the robot industry in South Korea has also developed rapidly in recent years. After releasing the first Five-Year Plan for the development of the robot industry in 2009, the Korean government announced the second five-year plan in 2014, hoping to realize the expansion of the robot industry through the integration of technology and other industries

China's robot industry has entered the policy honeymoon period. Not only has the senior government realized that the robot industry has strategic significance for seizing the initiative in the development of intelligent society, but also relevant specific policies are being formulated. It is reported that the relevant draft of the 13th five year plan has been basically completed, the relevant supporting policies of made in China 2025 are also being accelerated, and the relevant departments will successively introduce and implement 33 special plans for various sub sectors

it is revealed that China has more than 30 robot development zones and industrial parks, more than 100 listed enterprises with robot concepts, and thousands of large and small enterprises related to robots, including 700 to 800 influential companies. In fact, China has become the world's largest robot market for two consecutive years, but at present, China's relatively high-end market is still monopolized by foreign enterprises

robots drive industrial upgrading

from the perspective of the main functions and characteristics of robots, they are constantly improving to more vertical fields

Fanuc is a Japanese company specializing in numerical control system, which was founded in 1956. It is the largest professional CNC system manufacturer in the world, accounting for 70% of the global market share. Similar manufacturers also include Epson, Yaskawa electric and Kawasaki heavy industries. Most of them entered this field earlier and focused on the industrial robot market. Fanuc and Yaskawa electric are now two of the world's four robot giants

on the other hand, Japan's robot industry has expanded to service robots. In 2015, Softbank of Japan, Hon Hai and Alibaba of Taiwan launched the humanoid robot pepper, which has the ability to recognize expressions and dialogues, and can be used to guide shopping and care for the elderly and patients. In fact, many Japanese companies have launched humanoid robots, with prices ranging from tens of thousands of dollars to millions of dollars

European industry has invested 140billion euros every year, making it a leader in the field of industrial robots and medical robots. KUKA in Germany and abb, headquartered in Switzerland, are also among the four largest robot companies in the world. ABB was engaged in electric equipment and motor business in the early stage, and KUKA was engaged in welding equipment business at the beginning, and finally grew into a comprehensive industry. Taking the 2017 recovery rate of plastic 47%, wood 35%, glass 90%, paper and carton 90%, and metal 85% as an example, the automation enterprise has mastered the key technologies of robot body and some core parts

it can be seen that robots will integrate with big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence and other technologies. With major technological breakthroughs in the latter, the United States may lead to new changes in the robot industry. In recent years, the United States has begun to make efforts in the field of robot industry. Baite, adept and other enterprises have capital to challenge the traditional four robot enterprises

unlike robots replacing humans, the introduction of information technology, biotechnology and nano material technology makes robots have the foundation to expand human capabilities. At present, 90% of industrial robots are used in automobile manufacturing, and although service robots are promising, they have not improved after many years of development. However, the industry still believes that robots will generate new energy in some fields in the next few years

with the improvement of technology and robot operation sensitivity, robots will have greater value in the field of biomedicine than cars, because robots can improve economic benefits in the development of new drugs. At the same time, autonomous driving and agricultural applications are also considered to be commercially valuable markets, which urgently need to be upgraded and replaced by robots

Alois oll, a professor at Munich University of technology in Germany, said that the ability to obtain and share information anytime and anywhere, the rising ability of computing and processing, and the development of deep learning and artificial intelligence technology have made some functions such as avoiding obstacles possible. The development of these three aspects has brought qualitative changes to robots

Lynne Parker, a professor at the University of Tennessee, has a similar view. In her view, IOT provides a new development direction for robots, and becoming a cloud robot will gain a more advantageous development foundation

it is too early to replace manual work

however, behind the government's attention and the industry's prospects, the problems encountered by the robot industry's current situation cannot be ignored. Although the robot industry is in a period of rapid development, the global robot ownership is less than one tenth of the annual output of China's automobile industry; The global average robot density is only 0.62%, which means that 99.38% of the work is still done by people

recently, Guangdong Province officially announced that it would promote 1950 Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size to carry out machine replacement from 2015 to 2017, and select leading enterprises to carry out the pilot of smart factory cultivation and construction, preparing to invest 943billion yuan in industrial technology transformation within three years

but the fact is that robots are expensive and difficult to spread on a large scale. A small electronic business owner in Dongguan once told the media that production still relies more on labor, not that he doesn't want to introduce automation, but that the cost is too high. There are nearly one million matching workshops, and enterprises without strength don't even want to think about it. According to media reports, the price of a single robot in the Pearl River Delta is less than 200000 yuan, and the price of a robot system is 10000 yuan

at the same time, the local government management also realized that machine replacement does not involve all enterprises and processes, and there are many links that machines cannot do, which still need workers to operate. In some production links, workers only need about 10 minutes to be familiar with the assembly process, while robots need professional engineers to re program and debug, which will further delay time

the function and performance of robot products can not meet the rigid requirements of mass production in the manufacturing industry. Taking industrial robots as an example, they are not only lack of sensing system, but also lack of flexible operating system in some links. In production, robots can complete programmed and specified actions, but it is difficult for robots to operate flexibly for workers in typical labor

Xinhua once reported that,

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